Mbarara City vs UPDF Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Mbarara City v UPDF — Team-Based Signals
Mbarara City vs UPDF Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Mbarara City
UGA
UPDF edged past Mbarara City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; UPDF found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, UPDF led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Mbarara City and 1.00 for UPDF.
What was the final score of Mbarara City vs UPDF?
Mbarara City 0-1 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs UPDF?
Before kick-off our model rated an UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 35%, draw 27%, UPDF 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UPDF), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.