Citizen AA 2-2 Tuen Mun SA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
26%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.63
Over 2.5
63%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.66
No
37%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
69%
-16.2pp
21%
Draw
18%
+2.9pp
26%
Away Win
13%
+13.3pp
36%
Under 2.5
34%
+2.2pp
64%
Over 2.5
66%
-2.2pp
63%
BTTS Yes
56%
+7.0pp
37%
BTTS No
44%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Tuen Mun SA EU Bookmakers 16%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-25% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
418 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Citizen AA vs Tuen Mun SA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA and Tuen Mun SA couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

Our pre-match lean was Citizen AA at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Citizen AA vs Tuen Mun SA?

Citizen AA 2-2 Tuen Mun SA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Citizen AA vs Tuen Mun SA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Citizen AA win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Citizen AA 53%, draw 21%, Tuen Mun SA 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Citizen AA) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Citizen AA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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