Tobol 1-0 FC Astana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.29
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.6
Over 2.5
34%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
1.96
No
64%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
23%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
27%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.4pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
59%
+7.6pp
34%
Over 2.5
41%
-7.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
47%
-11.1pp
64%
BTTS No
53%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Astana EU Bookmakers 49%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
0.83/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.91
-11% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -3%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
284 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FC Astana
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.05.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZKK
21.04.2024 FC Astana FC Astana 2-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
16.09.2023 FC Astana FC Astana 2-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
09.04.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
14.09.2022 FC Astana FC Astana 1-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
26.04.2022 Tobol Tobol 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs FC Astana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol nicked a narrow win over FC Astana 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Astana at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tobol and 1.17 for FC Astana.

What was the final score of Tobol vs FC Astana?

Tobol 1-0 FC Astana in the Kazakistan - Super League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs FC Astana?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Astana win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tobol 24%, draw 30%, FC Astana 46%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FC Astana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Astana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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