Tobol 1-0 FC Astana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Cup, 8 May 2024

📅08/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.67
Over 2.5
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Astana EU Bookmakers 28%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.14/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.35/1.30
-23% / +95% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
404 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FC Astana
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
46% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 FC Astana FC Astana 2-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
16.09.2023 FC Astana FC Astana 2-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
09.04.2023 Tobol Tobol 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
14.09.2022 FC Astana FC Astana 1-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
26.04.2022 Tobol Tobol 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
13.06.2021 FC Astana FC Astana 1-1 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs FC Astana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol edged past FC Astana 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tobol as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Astana led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tobol and 1.33 for FC Astana.

What was the final score of Tobol vs FC Astana?

Tobol 1-0 FC Astana in the Kazakistan - Cup on 08/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs FC Astana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tobol 43%, draw 28%, FC Astana 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tobol), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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