Melgar 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

Melgar
1-1 HT 1-1
Deportivo Garcilaso
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Peru - Premier League – 2024

Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.25
Draw
18%
5.28
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
76%
-10.3pp
18%
Draw
16%
+1.9pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+8.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.0pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melgar v Deportivo Garcilaso — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 9%
-8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
2.03/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.54
+2% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +103% / +25%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
362 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 73%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
22.5 Crosses 9.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melgar
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.86 xG 1.06
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
333 Passes 188
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.05.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 1-3 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
02.07.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 1-2 Melgar Melgar PER
15.05.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-4 HT 1-3 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER

Melgar 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
1-1
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
3.26 xG 1.47
76% Ball Possession 24%
31 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
422 Passes 89
86% Pass Accuracy 56%
49 Box Touches 9
42 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar and Deportivo Garcilaso couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Melgar carried 66% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melgar had 76% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 24%, shots finished 31-11, expected goals 3.26 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Melgar and 2.33 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Melgar 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Melgar 66%, draw 18%, Deportivo Garcilaso 16%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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