Deportivo Garcilaso 1-3 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
46%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
Over 2.5
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
28%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
28%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
46%
Away Win
44%
+1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 48%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.49/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.80
-10% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
23.7 Crosses 17.5
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Melgar
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.05 xG 2.04
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
201 Passes 350
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 4
02.07.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 1-2 Melgar Melgar PER
15.05.2023 Melgar Melgar 2-4 HT 1-3 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
1-3
AWAY Melgar
1.07 xG 1.49
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 4
163 Passes 300
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar beat Deportivo Garcilaso 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 39% of the ball to Melgar's 61%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.07 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Deportivo Garcilaso had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 2.00 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar?

Deportivo Garcilaso 1-3 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 26%, draw 28%, Melgar 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Under 2.5
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