Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 Nov 2024

Gornik Zabrze
0-2 HT 0-0
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅03/11/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.4
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.94
6+ Goals
9%
8.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.4 — our 28% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.21
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
5.39
X/2
9%
6.2
X/X
11%
5.28
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
15%
3.9
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · X/1 at 5.39 — our 23% vs market 14.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-9.5pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gornik Zabrze v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +19%
1.64/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.45
+12% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -8%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 83%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
17.7 Crosses 14.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8

Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 1.53
49% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
344 Passes 361
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
27.08.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-1 HT 3-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
11.03.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 2-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
26.08.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-1 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
14.02.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-2 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.08.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 1-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL

Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
0-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.30 xG 1.43
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
577 Passes 338
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok beat Gornik Zabrze 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gornik Zabrze at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 61% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 39%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.30 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.83 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 44%, draw 25%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 30%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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