Krasnodar 4-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.95
4-5 Goals
24%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.31
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.96 — our 24% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.59
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.05
X/1
20%
3.58
X/2
6%
16.45
X/X
12%
7.55
2/1
9%
21.05
2/2
6%
12.3
2/X
6%
20.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
69%
-10.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.5pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+5.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 16%
-7% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.93/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/2.05
-15% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 73%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.4 Crosses 15.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.68 xG 1.34
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
459 Passes 270
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.12.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
12.08.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-2 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
13.11.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 5-1 HT 3-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
21.08.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
27.10.2019 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
11.03.2019 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-2 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
4-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.00 xG 1.13
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
323 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar ran out comfortable winners over FK Orenburg 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Krasnodar had 53% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 47%, shots finished 18-20, expected goals 2.00 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Krasnodar and 1.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg?

Krasnodar 4-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 58%, draw 23%, FK Orenburg 19%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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