CSKA Sofia 3-1 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.45
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
65%
-14.6pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.8pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Sofia EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 17%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.06/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.32
-40% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +13%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Sofia
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Spartak Varna
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.08.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 3-0 HT 2-0 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia BUL1
18.03.2023 CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia 1-0 HT 1-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Sofia
3-1
AWAY Spartak Varna
57% Ball Possession 43%
33 Total Shots 7
15 Shots on Target 1
16 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Sofia beat Spartak Varna 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CSKA Sofia as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, CSKA Sofia had 57% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 43%, shots finished 33-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for CSKA Sofia and 1.50 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

CSKA Sofia 3-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Sofia vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Sofia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split CSKA Sofia 50%, draw 27%, Spartak Varna 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Sofia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Sofia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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