Cherno More Varna 4-0 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 3 Dec 2024

📅03/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.43
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.44
No
55%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
6%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-11.8pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.4pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
37%
+8.6pp
55%
BTTS No
63%
-8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 EU Bookmakers 15%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.89/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/2.36
+12% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -21%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 2-1 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
04.04.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 3-0 HT 3-0 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 BUL1
01.10.2023 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 0-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
4-0
AWAY Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
70% Ball Possession 30%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna cruised past Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cherno More Varna as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 70% of the ball to Lokomotiv Sofia 1929's 30%, shots finished 15-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.67 for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

Cherno More Varna 4-0 Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 03/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia 1929?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 54%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cherno More Varna), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
3 Dec 2024
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