Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 3 Dec 2025

📅03/12/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
68%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
13%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.21
Over
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.31
2-3
40%
1.88
4-5
24%
2.9
6+
13%
8.45
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.31 — our 23% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.68
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
6%
18.0
X/1
25%
3.94
X/2
5%
14.65
X/X
8%
6.98
2/1
16%
21.35
2/2
5%
12.15
2/X
5%
20.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Liverpool win — 68%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
68%
Home Win
66%
+2.0pp
19%
Draw
19%
-0.4pp
13%
Away Win
14%
-1.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool The Market 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland The Market 17%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
2.21/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.86
+6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -57% / +104%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
473 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
36.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
22.4 Crosses 17.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Sunderland
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.22 xG 1.95
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
492 Passes 233
83% Pass Accuracy 69%
35 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.01.2017 Sunderland Sunderland 2-2 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
26.11.2016 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
06.02.2016 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
30.12.2015 Sunderland Sunderland 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
10.01.2015 Sunderland Sunderland 0-1 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
06.12.2014 Liverpool Liverpool 0-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
1-1
AWAY Sunderland
1.45 xG 0.42
68% Ball Possession 32%
23 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
554 Passes 218
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
33 Box Touches 16
34 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool and Sunderland couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Liverpool at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liverpool had 68% of the ball to Sunderland's 32%, shots finished 23-9, expected goals 1.45 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Liverpool and 0.67 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Sunderland?

Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland in the England - Premier League on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 68%, draw 19%, Sunderland 13%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
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