Burnley vs Crystal Palace Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Burnley v Crystal Palace — Team-Based Signals
Burnley vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Burnley 0-1 Crystal Palace — Actual Match Statistics
Crystal Palace nicked a narrow win over Burnley 1-0 away from home.
As we said in the preview, our model had Crystal Palace as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Burnley had 58% of the ball to Crystal Palace's 42%, shots finished 11-3, expected goals 0.95 to 0.67.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Burnley and 1.50 for Crystal Palace.
What was the final score of Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Burnley 0-1 Crystal Palace in the England - Premier League on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Before kick-off our model rated an Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Burnley 21%, draw 26%, Crystal Palace 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crystal Palace), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.