Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Dec 2025

📅03/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
51%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.86
Over
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.19
2-3
36%
1.78
4-5
24%
3.55
6+
11%
14.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.57
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
5%
15.35
X/1
9%
8.32
X/2
23%
4.4
X/X
14%
4.94
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.48
2/X
7%
14.15
Value flag · X/2 at 4.4 — our 23% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
24%
Home Win
24%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
51%
Away Win
51%
-0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.0pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 55%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
0.98/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.22
-43% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -7%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 81%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
21.7 Crosses 14.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.04 xG 1.39
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
310 Passes 537
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2025 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
04.12.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
31.03.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
12.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
04.06.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
22.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
0-3
AWAY Real Madrid
1.04 xG 2.21
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 7
298 Passes 567
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
21 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid cruised past Athletic Bilbao 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 38% of the ball to Real Madrid's 62%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 1.04 to 2.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.50 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid?

Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 24%, draw 26%, Real Madrid 51%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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