Real Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Apr 2025

Real Madrid
1-0 HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.03
6+ Goals
14%
9.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.73
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.25
X/1
15%
4.07
X/2
9%
14.55
X/X
10%
6.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.9
2/2
8%
12.25
2/X
7%
19.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.9 — our 10% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
65%
-11.4pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.2pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 17%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -18%
2.11/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.53
+20% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
445 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
33.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
17.8 Crosses 20.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.23 xG 1.36
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
526 Passes 340
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.12.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
31.03.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
12.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
04.06.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
22.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
03.02.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK

Real Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
1-0
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.51 xG 0.20
73% Ball Possession 27%
22 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
14 Corners 1
603 Passes 168
91% Pass Accuracy 70%
40 Box Touches 8
29 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid edged past Athletic Bilbao 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Real Madrid had 73% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 27%, shots finished 22-3, expected goals 1.51 to 0.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Real Madrid's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Real Madrid and 0.67 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?

Real Madrid 1-0 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 53%, draw 23%, Athletic Bilbao 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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