Villarreal 2-2 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 20 Apr 2025

Villarreal
2-2 HT 1-1
Real Sociedad
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Villarreal vs Real Sociedad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.1
6+ Goals
10%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 28% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.11
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.4
X/1
22%
4.3
X/2
6%
10.2
X/X
13%
5.66
2/1
13%
21.9
2/2
10%
7.9
2/X
7%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.3pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Real Sociedad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.88/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.38
+20% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
424 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
19.4 Crosses 14.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0

Villarreal vs Real Sociedad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.36 xG 1.37
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 Passes 382
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.01.2025 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-0 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
23.02.2024 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-3 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
09.12.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 0-3 HT 0-3 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
02.04.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
09.10.2022 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
15.05.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1

Villarreal 2-2 Real Sociedad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
2-2
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.94 xG 1.73
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 4
426 Passes 319
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
49 Box Touches 10
29 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal and Real Sociedad couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Villarreal at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Villarreal had 58% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 42%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 1.94 to 1.73.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Sociedad led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Villarreal and 1.33 for Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Real Sociedad?

Villarreal 2-2 Real Sociedad in the Spain - Primera Liga on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 53%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad 22%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ BTTS No
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