Esenler Erokspor 2-5 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Cup, 3 Dec 2025

📅03/12/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.08
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
29%
+7.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.8pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.5pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 50%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +35% / +35%
1.00/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.14/1.00
-34% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / +43%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.28 xG 2.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
292 Passes 350
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.04.2025 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 2-1 HT 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
01.12.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 0-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
24.11.2020 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-2 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
2-5
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük ran out comfortable winners over Esenler Erokspor 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 23% / 41%) promised a tight game; Fatih Karagümrük found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 40% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 60%, shots finished 8-18.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Esenler Erokspor had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 0.67 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Esenler Erokspor 2-5 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Cup on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 36%, draw 23%, Fatih Karagümrük 41%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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