Esenler Erokspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 9 Apr 2025

📅09/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.26
2-3 Goals
44%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
3.78
6+ Goals
8%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.88
1/2
7%
26.5
1/X
9%
13.55
X/1
15%
6.75
X/2
8%
5.07
X/X
11%
4.57
2/1
8%
34.0
2/2
23%
3.13
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.8pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-5.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.43/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.28
+35% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.6 Crosses 19.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.60 xG 2.02
47% Ball Possession 53%
6 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
283 Passes 366
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.12.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 0-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
24.11.2020 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-3 HT 0-2 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
2-1
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.97 xG 2.22
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
302 Passes 334
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 40
10 Crosses 39
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esenler Erokspor squeezed past Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Esenler Erokspor found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 46% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 54%, shots finished 9-22, expected goals 1.97 to 2.22.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 0.50 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Esenler Erokspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - 1st Division on 09/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 36%, draw 26%, Fatih Karagümrük 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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