Arbroath 1-3 Alloa Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - 1st Division, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.7
No
55%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.38
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 30% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+5.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.4pp
55%
BTTS No
45%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arbroath EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Alloa Athletic EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.36/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.45
-16% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 11.0
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arbroath
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Alloa Athletic
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
26.10.2024 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 0-1 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İK1
11.10.2024 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 1-0 HT 1-0 Arbroath Arbroath İKCK
31.08.2024 Arbroath Arbroath 0-0 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İK1
03.04.2021 Arbroath Arbroath 2-1 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İKCL
13.02.2021 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Arbroath Arbroath İKCL
12.12.2020 Arbroath Arbroath 0-1 HT 0-0 Alloa Athletic Alloa Athletic İKCL
POST-MATCH Arbroath vs Alloa Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alloa Athletic saw off Arbroath 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Arbroath at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Arbroath and 0.67 for Alloa Athletic.

What was the final score of Arbroath vs Alloa Athletic?

Arbroath 1-3 Alloa Athletic in the Scotland - 1st Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arbroath vs Alloa Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arbroath win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arbroath 44%, draw 25%, Alloa Athletic 31%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arbroath) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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