Raja Casablanca 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.51
Over 2.5
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
5.02
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
18%
4.79
X/2
8%
6.37
X/X
15%
3.57
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
5.15
2/X
5%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.4pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.4pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.5pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Raja Casablanca EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns EU Bookmakers 32%
-60% / -60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.68/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/0.90
-100% / -50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -29%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
32.0 Crosses 16.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Raja Casablanca
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.05 xG 0.77
37% Ball Possession 63%
3 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
261 Passes 490
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
6 Box Touches 19
9 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Mamelodi Sundowns Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0 HT 0-0 Raja Casablanca Raja Casablanca CAFŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Raja Casablanca
1-0
AWAY Mamelodi Sundowns
1.62 xG 0.56
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 1
352 Passes 302
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
40 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Raja Casablanca vs Mamelodi Sundowns
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Raja Casablanca edged past Mamelodi Sundowns 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Raja Casablanca as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Raja Casablanca had 54% of the ball to Mamelodi Sundowns's 46%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.62 to 0.56.

What was the final score of Raja Casablanca vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Raja Casablanca 1-0 Mamelodi Sundowns in the CAF Champions League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Raja Casablanca vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

Before kick-off our model rated a Raja Casablanca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Raja Casablanca 42%, draw 28%, Mamelodi Sundowns 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Raja Casablanca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Raja Casablanca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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