Young Africans 3-1 TP Mazembe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.75
Over 2.5
39%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.74
6+ Goals
7%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.0
X/1
17%
3.47
X/2
9%
14.2
X/X
13%
5.15
2/1
12%
27.5
2/2
7%
12.7
2/X
7%
20.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-12.6pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.5pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
53%
+7.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
47%
-7.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.4pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Young Africans EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY TP Mazembe EU Bookmakers 16%
-74% / -74% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
0.86/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.46/1.28
-100% / -77% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +136% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
396 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
22.0 Crosses 21.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Young Africans
2W-1D-0L
AWAY TP Mazembe
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.43 xG 0.90
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
274 Passes 241
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
14 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 TP Mazembe TP Mazembe 1-1 HT 1-0 Young Africans Young Africans CAFŞL
02.04.2023 TP Mazembe TP Mazembe 0-1 HT 0-0 Young Africans Young Africans CAFKK
19.02.2023 Young Africans Young Africans 3-1 HT 2-0 TP Mazembe TP Mazembe CAFKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Young Africans
3-1
AWAY TP Mazembe
2.81 xG 1.44
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
371 Passes 175
78% Pass Accuracy 66%
42 Box Touches 8
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Young Africans vs TP Mazembe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Young Africans got the better of TP Mazembe 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Young Africans as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Young Africans had 64% of the ball to TP Mazembe's 36%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.81 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Young Africans had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Young Africans and 0.67 for TP Mazembe.

What was the final score of Young Africans vs TP Mazembe?

Young Africans 3-1 TP Mazembe in the CAF Champions League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Young Africans vs TP Mazembe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Young Africans win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Young Africans 52%, draw 27%, TP Mazembe 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Young Africans) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Young Africans) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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