Lille 1-1 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Jan 2025

Lille
1-1 HT 1-0
Nantes
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lille vs Nantes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1
22%
3.6
X/2
6%
11.9
X/X
10%
5.37
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
8%
10.0
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
18.65
Value flag · 2/X at 18.65 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.5pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Nantes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.96/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.78
-4% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
437 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
18.0 Crosses 15.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lille vs Nantes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lille
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Nantes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.77 xG 0.87
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
450 Passes 221
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Nantes Nantes 1-2 HT 0-2 Lille Lille FR1
20.08.2023 Lille Lille 2-0 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
27.05.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
12.08.2022 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
19.03.2022 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
27.11.2021 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1

Lille 1-1 Nantes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
1-1
AWAY Nantes
1.19 xG 1.33
71% Ball Possession 29%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 0
643 Passes 220
90% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lille vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille and Nantes shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lille at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lille had 71% of the ball to Nantes's 29%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.19 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lille and 0.67 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Lille vs Nantes?

Lille 1-1 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Lille 54%, draw 27%, Nantes 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lille) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Under 2.5
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