Nantes 1-2 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 12 May 2024

Nantes
1-2 HT 0-2
Lille
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Nantes vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.88
6+ Goals
9%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 29% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.35
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
10%
9.0
X/2
14%
3.88
X/X
12%
4.75
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.28
2/X
7%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+4.7pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
48%
Away Win
54%
-5.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nantes v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 57%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.13/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.22
-32% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 82%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
17.8 Crosses 17.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Nantes vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Lille
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.88 xG 1.76
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
246 Passes 433
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Lille Lille 2-0 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
27.05.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
12.08.2022 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
19.03.2022 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
27.11.2021 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
07.02.2021 Nantes Nantes 0-2 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1

Nantes 1-2 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
1-2
AWAY Lille
0.71 xG 1.57
29% Ball Possession 71%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
168 Passes 546
72% Pass Accuracy 88%
26 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nantes vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille squeezed past Nantes 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Nantes had 29% of the ball to Lille's 71%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.71 to 1.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Nantes and 1.50 for Lille.

What was the final score of Nantes vs Lille?

Nantes 1-2 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nantes 26%, draw 26%, Lille 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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