PSG 1-3 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 12 May 2024

PSG
1-3 HT 1-1
Toulouse
📅12/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

PSG vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.81
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.98
Over 2.5
56%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.55
No
54%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.48
2-3 Goals
40%
2.25
4-5 Goals
27%
2.43
6+ Goals
11%
4.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1.59
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.65
X/1
14%
3.88
X/2
7%
15.75
X/X
9%
8.83
2/1
9%
18.15
2/2
8%
10.15
2/X
4%
18.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
68%
-6.0pp
19%
Draw
17%
+1.4pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
30%
+14.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
70%
-14.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
60%
-14.4pp
54%
BTTS No
40%
+14.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +20%
2.17/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.80
+25% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -2%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
505 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
33.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
15.6 Crosses 15.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

PSG vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Toulouse
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.35 xG 0.93
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
602 Passes 263
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
39 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.01.2024 PSG PSG 2-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FRSK
19.08.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
04.02.2023 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
31.08.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 0-3 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
25.08.2019 PSG PSG 4-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
31.03.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 0-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 1-3 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
1-3
AWAY Toulouse
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
577 Passes 289
88% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH PSG vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse saw off PSG 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PSG at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, PSG had 64% of the ball to Toulouse's 36%, shots finished 15-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for PSG and 0.33 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of PSG vs Toulouse?

PSG 1-3 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split PSG 62%, draw 19%, Toulouse 19%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (PSG), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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