Lyon 1-0 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Jan 2025

Lyon
1-0 HT 0-0
Montpellier
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.73
2-3 Goals
38%
2.14
4-5 Goals
29%
2.4
6+ Goals
15%
4.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.5
X/1
13%
3.91
X/2
7%
15.3
X/X
9%
8.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
18.75
2/2
10%
10.0
2/X
5%
18.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.75 — our 12% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
68%
-10.9pp
21%
Draw
17%
+3.4pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.4pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
2.21/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.90
-6% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -13%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
485 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 78%
33.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.4 Crosses 16.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lyon vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Montpellier
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.29 xG 1.86
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
467 Passes 300
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
38 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
19.08.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-4 HT 0-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
07.05.2023 Lyon Lyon 5-4 HT 1-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
22.10.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
23.04.2022 Lyon Lyon 5-2 HT 2-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
28.11.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 0-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 1-0 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-0
AWAY Montpellier
1.35 xG 1.17
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
432 Passes 289
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon squeezed past Montpellier 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lyon had 58% of the ball to Montpellier's 42%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.35 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Lyon and 2.00 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Montpellier?

Lyon 1-0 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lyon 57%, draw 21%, Montpellier 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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