Montpellier 1-2 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 11 Feb 2024

Montpellier
1-2 HT 1-0
Lyon
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒19:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Montpellier vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 30% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.86
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
18%
5.55
X/2
8%
5.3
X/X
13%
4.35
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
17%
3.61
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
36%
+6.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -26%
1.61/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.68
+6% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -30%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
22.9 Crosses 15.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5

Montpellier vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Lyon
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.84 xG 2.84
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
291 Passes 461
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 39
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-4 HT 0-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
07.05.2023 Lyon Lyon 5-4 HT 1-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
22.10.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
23.04.2022 Lyon Lyon 5-2 HT 2-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
28.11.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 0-1 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
13.02.2021 Lyon Lyon 1-2 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1

Montpellier 1-2 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
1-2
AWAY Lyon
1.54 xG 1.16
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
348 Passes 428
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 31
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon nicked a narrow win over Montpellier 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Montpellier at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Montpellier had 45% of the ball to Lyon's 55%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 1.54 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Montpellier and 2.50 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Lyon?

Montpellier 1-2 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montpellier win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 42%, draw 27%, Lyon 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Montpellier) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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