Toulouse 1-2 Nantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.03
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
3.78
6+ Goals
9%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.79
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
18%
4.43
X/2
12%
6.97
X/X
11%
4.4
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
8%
5.26
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
-0.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Nantes EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.52/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.22
+7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.2 Crosses 19.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nantes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.07 xG 1.18
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
428 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Nantes Nantes 1-2 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.05.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
29.04.2023 Nantes Nantes 1-5 HT 0-4 Toulouse Toulouse FRK
28.08.2022 Nantes Nantes 3-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
30.05.2021 Nantes Nantes 0-1 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
27.05.2021 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-2 Nantes Nantes FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
1-2
AWAY Nantes
1.02 xG 0.38
74% Ball Possession 26%
16 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 0
523 Passes 137
84% Pass Accuracy 61%
29 Box Touches 6
37 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Nantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nantes edged past Toulouse 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Toulouse at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toulouse had 74% of the ball to Nantes's 26%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.02 to 0.38 — on chances, Toulouse could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Toulouse and 1.17 for Nantes.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Nantes?

Toulouse 1-2 Nantes in the France - Ligue 1 on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Nantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 46%, draw 27%, Nantes 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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