Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.5pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 30%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.98/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.21
+58% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Amarante
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.09.2024 Amarante Amarante 1-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1-0
AWAY Amarante
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa edged past Amarante 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 46% of the ball to Amarante's 54%, shots finished 10-6.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Amarante?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Amarante in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 42%, draw 27%, Amarante 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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