Varzim 3-2 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 Jan 2025

📅04/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.45
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
64%
-16.4pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.9pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+11.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.40/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/1.35
-14% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -49% / +10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Vilaverdense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.09.2024 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 1-3 HT 1-2 Varzim Varzim POR3
25.02.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
12.11.2022 Varzim Varzim 2-2 HT 0-1 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
3-2
AWAY Vilaverdense
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim squeezed past Vilaverdense 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Varzim as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Varzim had 68% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 32%, shots finished 15-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Varzim had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Varzim and 1.00 for Vilaverdense.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Vilaverdense?

Varzim 3-2 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Varzim 48%, draw 27%, Vilaverdense 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varzim) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Varzim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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