Vilaverdense 1-3 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.59
Over 2.5
50%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
59%
-9.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
41%
+9.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.1pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 45%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.07
+58% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +17%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vilaverdense
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Varzim
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 0-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POR3
12.11.2022 Varzim Varzim 2-2 HT 0-1 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vilaverdense
1-3
AWAY Varzim
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vilaverdense vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim beat Vilaverdense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Varzim made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Vilaverdense had 42% of the ball to Varzim's 58%, shots finished 14-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vilaverdense and 1.00 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Vilaverdense vs Varzim?

Vilaverdense 1-3 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vilaverdense vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated an Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Vilaverdense 35%, draw 27%, Varzim 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Varzim) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Varzim)
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