Lusitania 1-0 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.9pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
3.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.17
+141% / -66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
1-0
AWAY Sporting Covilha
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania squeezed past Sporting Covilha 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day Lusitania made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Lusitania had 55% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 45%, shots finished 13-19.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Sporting Covilha?

Lusitania 1-0 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 36%, draw 30%, Sporting Covilha 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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