Academica 1-3 Atletico CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.0pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.8pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.4pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico CP EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.63/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.45
-51% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Atletico CP
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2024 Academica Academica 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico CP Atletico CP POR3
10.03.2024 Atletico CP Atletico CP 1-3 HT 1-1 Academica Academica POR3
27.01.2024 Academica Academica 2-2 HT 1-1 Atletico CP Atletico CP POR3
29.10.2023 Atletico CP Atletico CP 2-1 HT 0-1 Academica Academica POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academica
1-3
AWAY Atletico CP
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Academica vs Atletico CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico CP saw off Academica 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Academica at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Academica had 53% of the ball to Atletico CP's 47%, shots finished 11-8.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Academica and 1.50 for Atletico CP.

What was the final score of Academica vs Atletico CP?

Academica 1-3 Atletico CP in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Atletico CP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Academica 42%, draw 25%, Atletico CP 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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