Ceuta 2-1 FC Andorra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 4 Jan 2026

📅04/01/2026 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
25%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.82
Over 2.5
55%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.59 — our 26% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.8
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
18%
4.76
X/2
9%
7.42
X/X
12%
4.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
10%
5.58
2/X
8%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
47%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
51%
-6.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
49%
+6.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.1pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Andorra EU Bookmakers 30%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
0.77/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.75
-27% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
22.5 Crosses 14.6
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceuta
2-1
AWAY FC Andorra
2.01 xG 1.57
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
167 Passes 414
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs FC Andorra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta squeezed past FC Andorra 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ceuta as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ceuta had 33% of the ball to FC Andorra's 67%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 2.01 to 1.57.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs FC Andorra?

Ceuta 2-1 FC Andorra in the Spain - 2nd Division on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs FC Andorra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceuta win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 50%, draw 25%, FC Andorra 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceuta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ceuta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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