Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-2
HT 1-0
Paços De Ferreira
PORLC
2-2
HT 2-1
Penafiel
HAZ
Penafiel 1-2 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics
Paços De Ferreira nicked a narrow win over Penafiel 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Penafiel at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Penafiel had 57% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 43%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 3.07 to 1.60 — on chances, Penafiel could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Penafiel and 1.67 for Paços De Ferreira.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira?
Penafiel 1-2 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 04/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira?
Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 41%, draw 31%, Paços De Ferreira 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.