Penafiel 1-2 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
11%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +9%
1.35/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.30
-5% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
292 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.4 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.46 xG 1.89
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
221 Passes 387
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-3 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
20.04.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR2
09.12.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
13.10.2019 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira PORLC
17.07.2019 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 2-1 Penafiel Penafiel HAZ
08.02.2015 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-2
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
0.97 xG 0.97
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
352 Passes 199
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paços De Ferreira edged past Penafiel 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Paços De Ferreira found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Penafiel had 64% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 36%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.97 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Penafiel and 1.67 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira?

Penafiel 1-2 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 38%, draw 27%, Paços De Ferreira 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✗ Under 2.5
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