Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Paços De Ferreira v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-2
HT 1-0
Paços De Ferreira
PORLC
2-2
HT 2-1
Penafiel
HAZ
2-1
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Paços De Ferreira
POR
Paços De Ferreira 1-3 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel saw off Paços De Ferreira 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Penafiel found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Paços De Ferreira had 58% of the ball to Penafiel's 42%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.11 to 2.14.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Paços De Ferreira and 1.00 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Paços De Ferreira 1-3 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Paços De Ferreira vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Paços De Ferreira 39%, draw 26%, Penafiel 35%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.