Chaves 0-3 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 1 Sep 2024

Chaves
0-3 HT 0-1
Mafra
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Chaves vs Mafra Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.0pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chaves v Mafra — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +24%
1.22/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.50
-14% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.7 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2

Chaves vs Mafra Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Mafra
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
236 Passes 342
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2022 Chaves Chaves 1-2 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra PORLC
09.04.2022 Mafra Mafra 0-1 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
27.11.2021 Chaves Chaves 0-1 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
01.05.2021 Chaves Chaves 1-1 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
03.01.2021 Mafra Mafra 1-2 HT 1-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
01.02.2020 Mafra Mafra 1-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR2

Chaves 0-3 Mafra — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
0-3
AWAY Mafra
1.20 xG 1.18
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
274 Passes 243
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra ran out comfortable winners over Chaves 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Chaves at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chaves had 51% of the ball to Mafra's 49%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.20 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mafra led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chaves and 1.00 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Mafra?

Chaves 0-3 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Chaves 46%, draw 29%, Mafra 25%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Chaves), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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