Porto II 1-1 Uniao De Leiria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
39%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.46
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 28% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
39%
Away Win
33%
+5.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto II EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.56/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/0.98
+24% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
351 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses 17.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto II
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.79 xG 1.48
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
316 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 1-1 Porto II Porto II POR2
27.08.2023 Porto II Porto II 2-1 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto II
1-1
AWAY Uniao De Leiria
1.80 xG 1.77
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
336 Passes 286
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Porto II vs Uniao De Leiria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto II and Uniao De Leiria couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (35% / 26% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Porto II had 53% of the ball to Uniao De Leiria's 47%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.80 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Porto II had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto II and 1.00 for Uniao De Leiria.

What was the final score of Porto II vs Uniao De Leiria?

Porto II 1-1 Uniao De Leiria in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto II vs Uniao De Leiria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Porto II 35%, draw 26%, Uniao De Leiria 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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