Leixoes 1-2 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.75
6+ Goals
9%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 30% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 25%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.38/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.58
-20% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.6 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
3W-0D-3L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.07
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
274 Passes 274
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
19.05.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-3 HT 0-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
12.01.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 0-2 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
21.01.2023 Leixoes Leixoes 1-2 HT 1-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
19.11.2022 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense PORLC
05.04.2021 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 1-1 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
1-2
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.60 xG 1.38
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 8
284 Passes 112
75% Pass Accuracy 67%
42 Crosses 6
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense edged past Leixoes 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Leixoes at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leixoes had 61% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 39%, shots finished 16-2, expected goals 1.60 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Leixoes and 1.33 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs UD Oliveirense?

Leixoes 1-2 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 46%, draw 30%, UD Oliveirense 24%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leixoes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
8 Feb 2025
17:00 Felgueiras 1932 vs Tondela Analysis →
18:30 Maritimo vs Portimonense Analysis →
21:00 Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira Analysis →