Ceuta 2-0 Real Madrid II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 4 Feb 2024

Ceuta
2-0 HT 0-0
Real Madrid II
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2023/2024

Ceuta vs Real Madrid II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.62
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.43
6+ Goals
8%
23.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 34% vs market 31.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-5.5pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceuta v Real Madrid II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceuta EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid II EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.38/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.43
+11% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.8

Ceuta vs Real Madrid II Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceuta
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Real Madrid II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Real Madrid II Real Madrid II 1-1 HT 0-0 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
07.05.2023 Real Madrid II Real Madrid II 0-3 HT 0-1 Ceuta Ceuta İS3
15.01.2023 Ceuta Ceuta 2-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid II Real Madrid II İS3
POST-MATCH Ceuta vs Real Madrid II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceuta beat Real Madrid II 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 36%) promised a tight game; Ceuta found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ceuta had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ceuta and 1.00 for Real Madrid II.

What was the final score of Ceuta vs Real Madrid II?

Ceuta 2-0 Real Madrid II in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceuta vs Real Madrid II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid II win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Ceuta 33%, draw 31%, Real Madrid II 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Real Madrid II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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