Malaga 3-0 Atletico Baleares — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.32
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
22%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.29
No
56%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
13.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 29% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
72%
-16.6pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.5pp
22%
Away Win
10%
+12.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.4pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Baleares EU Bookmakers 12%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.24/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/2.11
-29% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -21%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Atletico Baleares
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.09.2023 Atletico Baleares Atletico Baleares 1-2 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
3-0
AWAY Atletico Baleares
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Malaga vs Atletico Baleares
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malaga cruised past Atletico Baleares 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Malaga as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Malaga had 62% of the ball to Atletico Baleares's 38%, shots finished 18-7.

What was the final score of Malaga vs Atletico Baleares?

Malaga 3-0 Atletico Baleares in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs Atletico Baleares?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malaga win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Malaga 55%, draw 23%, Atletico Baleares 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malaga), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Malaga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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