Lucchese 2-1 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.28
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.28
6+ Goals
9%
33.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-3.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.0pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lucchese EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.24/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.61
-7% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lucchese
2W-1D-2L
AWAY SPAL
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2023 SPAL SPAL 0-2 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTCK
11.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 2-2 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
23.09.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-2 HT 1-1 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
06.09.2015 SPAL SPAL 3-0 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
28.09.2014 SPAL SPAL 2-0 HT 2-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lucchese
2-1
AWAY SPAL
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lucchese vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lucchese edged past SPAL 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lucchese as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lucchese had 51% of the ball to SPAL's 49%, shots finished 10-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Lucchese and 1.60 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Lucchese vs SPAL?

Lucchese 2-1 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lucchese vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lucchese 42%, draw 29%, SPAL 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lucchese) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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