AS Eupen 0-1 Mechelen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.17
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.66
6+ Goals
11%
15.15
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.66 — our 26% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.27
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
14%
6.04
X/2
13%
5.0
X/X
12%
4.46
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
20%
3.28
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+1.8pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.9pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AS Eupen EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mechelen EU Bookmakers 43%
-14% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.49/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.28
-3% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
17.6 Crosses 16.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AS Eupen
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mechelen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.14 xG 2.13
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
293 Passes 420
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Mechelen Mechelen 1-0 HT 0-0 AS Eupen AS Eupen BEL
10.02.2023 AS Eupen AS Eupen 2-1 HT 0-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
22.10.2022 Mechelen Mechelen 2-1 HT 1-1 AS Eupen AS Eupen BEL
19.03.2022 AS Eupen AS Eupen 1-1 HT 1-1 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
22.12.2021 Mechelen Mechelen 1-3 HT 1-0 AS Eupen AS Eupen BEK
07.08.2021 Mechelen Mechelen 1-3 HT 1-0 AS Eupen AS Eupen BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AS Eupen
0-1
AWAY Mechelen
1.09 xG 0.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
411 Passes 360
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AS Eupen vs Mechelen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen squeezed past AS Eupen 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Mechelen found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AS Eupen had 53% of the ball to Mechelen's 47%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.09 to 0.33 — on chances, AS Eupen could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AS Eupen had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AS Eupen and 1.17 for Mechelen.

What was the final score of AS Eupen vs Mechelen?

AS Eupen 0-1 Mechelen in the Belgium - Pro League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AS Eupen vs Mechelen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AS Eupen 36%, draw 25%, Mechelen 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mechelen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mechelen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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