Anderlecht 1-0 Gent — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.67
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.67 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.95
1/2
8%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
11%
4.85
X/2
8%
6.62
X/X
14%
4.84
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
11%
4.57
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.4pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Gent EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.51/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.38
-23% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
402 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 75%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
17.0 Crosses 13.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Anderlecht
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Gent
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.09 xG 0.92
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
403 Passes 370
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.11.2023 Gent Gent 1-1 HT 1-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
05.03.2023 Gent Gent 1-0 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
01.09.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0-1 HT 0-0 Gent Gent BEL
18.04.2022 Gent Gent 0-0 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEK
20.03.2022 Gent Gent 1-0 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
23.09.2021 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1-1 HT 0-1 Gent Gent BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Anderlecht
1-0
AWAY Gent
1.65 xG 0.59
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
240 Passes 397
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Anderlecht vs Gent
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht squeezed past Gent 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Anderlecht as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Anderlecht had 40% of the ball to Gent's 60%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.65 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gent led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Anderlecht and 0.83 for Gent.

What was the final score of Anderlecht vs Gent?

Anderlecht 1-0 Gent in the Belgium - Pro League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Anderlecht vs Gent?

Before kick-off our model rated a Anderlecht win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Anderlecht 44%, draw 28%, Gent 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Anderlecht), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Anderlecht) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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