AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 4 Feb 2024

AZ Alkmaar
0-1 HT 0-1
Feyenoord
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
50%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
15%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.78
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.75
1/X
7%
15.95
X/1
8%
10.3
X/2
14%
3.87
X/X
9%
5.66
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
27%
2.02
2/X
7%
15.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.75 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+7.9pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
50%
Away Win
58%
-7.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar v Feyenoord — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Feyenoord EU Bookmakers 62%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +12%
1.18/2.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/0.97
-5% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -7%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.6
10.6 Crosses 21.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.3

AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Feyenoord
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.09 xG 1.11
46% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
341 Passes 419
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Feyenoord Feyenoord 1-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
18.02.2023 Feyenoord Feyenoord 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
16.10.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-3 HT 1-1 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOL
27.02.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 2-0 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOL
07.11.2021 Feyenoord Feyenoord 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
28.02.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-2 HT 2-2 Feyenoord Feyenoord HOL

AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
0-1
AWAY Feyenoord
0.91 xG 1.04
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
396 Passes 283
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Feyenoord edged past AZ Alkmaar 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Feyenoord as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 57% of the ball to Feyenoord's 43%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 0.91 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Feyenoord led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.67 for Feyenoord.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?

AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?

Before kick-off our model rated an Feyenoord win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 27%, draw 23%, Feyenoord 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Feyenoord) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Feyenoord) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
4 Feb 2024
14:15 Vitesse vs Go Ahead Eagles Analysis →
16:30 Utrecht vs Volendam Analysis →
18:45 Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Analysis →