Chaves 1-1 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.17
6+ Goals
10%
20.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.32
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
18%
4.84
X/2
11%
5.99
X/X
15%
4.13
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
14%
4.48
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +3%
1.50/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.20
+14% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
21.2 Crosses 19.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Farense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.12 xG 1.77
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
280 Passes 365
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.08.2023 Farense Farense 5-0 HT 4-0 Chaves Chaves POR
30.04.2022 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
18.12.2021 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR2
24.07.2021 Chaves Chaves 1-2 HT 0-0 Farense Farense PORLC
30.11.2019 Farense Farense 1-0 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR2
13.12.2015 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
1-1
AWAY Farense
0.85 xG 2.57
48% Ball Possession 52%
3 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
322 Passes 353
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 24
22 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chaves vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves and Farense shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Chaves had 48% of the ball to Farense's 52%, shots finished 3-16, expected goals 0.85 to 2.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Farense led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chaves and 1.83 for Farense.

What was the final score of Chaves vs Farense?

Chaves 1-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chaves 40%, draw 29%, Farense 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chaves), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chaves) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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