Vizela 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
44%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
18.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.21
1/2
5%
25.5
1/X
6%
15.15
X/1
9%
7.72
X/2
11%
4.06
X/X
14%
4.49
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
27%
2.54
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+4.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 54%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
0.76/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.91
-78% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
19.1 Crosses 22.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.38 xG 1.46
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
267 Passes 377
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
27.08.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
07.05.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-0 HT 2-0 Vizela Vizela POR
30.12.2022 Vizela Vizela 3-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
09.11.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POK
30.01.2022 Vizela Vizela 3-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
22.08.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 4-0 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
0-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.36 xG 1.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
277 Passes 244
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 31
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Vizela 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Vizela had 52% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 48%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.36 to 1.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria Guimaraes's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vizela and 2.17 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Vizela 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Vizela 29%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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