Krasnodar 1-0 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Feb 2025

📅04/02/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.19
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
28%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.43
Over 2.5
47%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.46
No
58%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
5.17
2-3 Goals
43%
2.0
4-5 Goals
20%
2.76
6+ Goals
9%
7.01
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.17 — our 28% vs market 15.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.15
1/2
6%
24.7
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
16%
5.61
X/2
10%
6.39
X/X
9%
5.89
2/1
7%
22.1
2/2
12%
3.84
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
42%
+8.9pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.9pp
28%
Away Win
34%
-6.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
64%
-22.3pp
58%
BTTS No
36%
+22.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 38%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.73/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.87
-53% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.03 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
357 Passes 269
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-1 HT 0-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
25.05.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
19.09.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
09.08.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-3 HT 2-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
21.07.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-3 HT 0-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
11.03.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
1-0
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar nicked a narrow win over Dinamo Moscow 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Krasnodar had 48% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 52%, shots finished 15-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Krasnodar and 1.17 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow?

Krasnodar 1-0 Dinamo Moscow in the Friendlies on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 51%, draw 21%, Dinamo Moscow 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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