Dinamo Moscow 0-1 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.53
No
49%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.91
6+ Goals
13%
8.44
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.5 — our 27% vs market 17.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.19
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
10%
5.4
X/2
10%
6.22
X/X
14%
5.35
2/1
10%
24.0
2/2
15%
3.88
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.3pp
49%
BTTS No
39%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -15%
1.49/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.19
+1% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
18.1 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Krasnodar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.01 xG 0.89
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
254 Passes 420
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
19.09.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
09.08.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-3 HT 2-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
21.07.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-3 HT 0-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
11.03.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
13.08.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
0-1
AWAY Krasnodar
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 2
322 Passes 294
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar edged past Dinamo Moscow 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Moscow at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 53% of the ball to Krasnodar's 47%, shots finished 21-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.83 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar?

Dinamo Moscow 0-1 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 41%, draw 25%, Krasnodar 34%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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