Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 Rostov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
24%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.3
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
11%
9.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 29% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.82
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
13%
4.9
X/2
10%
6.92
X/X
10%
5.31
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
10%
4.56
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
45%
+5.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
24%
Away Win
30%
-5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.8pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Rostov EU Bookmakers 33%
+11% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -3%
1.52/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.23
+22% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 77%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
16.3 Crosses 19.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Rostov
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.56 xG 1.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
261 Passes 291
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
06.05.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
28.10.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
03.10.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 3-1 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
30.08.2023 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 2-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUK
04.03.2023 Rostov Rostov 1-3 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3-2
AWAY Rostov
1.93 xG 0.88
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
240 Passes 399
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow edged past Rostov 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 40% of the ball to Rostov's 60%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.93 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 0.83 for Rostov.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 Rostov in the Russia - Premier League on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Rostov?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 51%, draw 25%, Rostov 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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