Krasnodar 1-0 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 25 May 2024

📅25/05/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.82
6+ Goals
9%
7.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.52
1/2
5%
24.85
1/X
7%
12.2
X/1 EV+ ✓
18%
5.93
X/2
14%
5.88
X/X
12%
5.36
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
3.47
2/X
9%
12.2
Value flag · X/1 at 5.93 — our 18% vs market 12.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
37%
+4.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 40%
+17% / +36% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +12%
1.42/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.43
+32% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
311 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
13.0 Crosses 17.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.75 xG 1.32
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
431 Passes 275
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.09.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
09.08.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-3 HT 2-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
21.07.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-3 HT 0-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
11.03.2023 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
13.08.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.04.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
1-0
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.03 xG 0.80
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
348 Passes 171
83% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 26
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar squeezed past Dinamo Moscow 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Krasnodar had 62% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 38%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 1.03 to 0.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Krasnodar and 1.33 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow?

Krasnodar 1-0 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 25/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 41%, draw 28%, Dinamo Moscow 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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